A Tribe called Quit

I expected to root for the Indians this year, because the Indians seemed to have a breakout season last year and the Major League team I followed in my youth, the Tigers, hadn't done anything since, well, my youth. The Indians, though, have not been in the pennant race, while the surprising Tigers have had the best record in baseball. I'm still following the Indians more closely than the Tigers, however, and, as a former stat junkie, I've been grimly fascinated by the Tribe's incompetence this year. A team's record is usually fairly predictable from the differential between its runs scored and runs allowed, which can be translated into a won-loss percentage by the baseball version of the Pythagorean theorem. Won-loss records don't line up exactly with those predicted by the Pythagorean theorem, but they usually don't differ by more than a few games, which is what makes the Indians' performance this year so vexing. They have performed way, way below what they should have based on their run differential, perhaps to a historical extent. Through yesterday, the Indians this year have outscored their opponents by 54 runs, 660 to 606. According to the theorem, they should have a record of about 66-56, but their actual record is 55-67. They are underperforming by 11 games, or to put it bluntly, they should have 11 more wins at this point than they do and be in contention for a wild-card spot. For perspective, if the present trends of run differential and won-loss results were to continue through the end of the season, Cleveland would project to an 87-75 record yet end up 73-89. For further perspective, consider the team Mom Sequiturs roots for, the BoSox. They've actually performed worse from a statistical standpoint than Cleveland: the Bostons have outscored their opponents by fewer runs (44, 678-634) and should have a record of 65-57. They've actually done slightly better than predicted by the theorem, though -- four games better, for an actual record of 69-53, and are (at the moment) in the thick of the playoff race. So is it bad luck with the Indians, or bad attitude, or what? Baseball-reference.com shows that the Indians have underperformed their Pythagorean won-loss every year Eric Wedge has been the manager, and they folded badly at the end of the last two seasons. I rarely blame the manager, but if he gets so little out of his players year after year, I definitely blame the manager.

Could this guy manage a pitching staff better than Eric Wedge?

Comments

[Robb]

Yes, he could. 'Course, he could probably pitch better than the Indians bullpen, too.